Time for a break

Just to show that it's not all fun and games here, today I'm going to talk about the Baseball Hall of Fame announcement. In case you missed it, Goose Gossage was the only player to receive enough votes to be enshrined in Cooperstown this summer. To that I say Congratulations Goose, it has been a long time coming, and, like Rob Neyer, I don't really expect another reliever to get in until Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera become eligible (sorry Lee Smith, John Franco and everyone else).

But, let's look at the next 5 highest ranking nominees (to be inducted, player needs to receive 75% of the vote or higher, or 408 votes this year).

Jim Rice got 392 votes (72%)
Andre Dawson got 358 votes (66%)
Bert Blyleven got 336 votes (62%)
Lee Smith got 235 votes (43%)
Jack Morris got 233 votes (43%)

After that, the only new player that received more than 5% of the vote was Tim Raines, who got 132 votes (24%).

Here is a comparison between this year's results and last year's results for Goose and the next 5 highest:

Goose increased his vote total from 388 (71%) to 466 (86%), an increase of +78

Jim Rice increased his vote total from 346 (63.5%) to 392 (72%), an increase of +46

Andre Dawson increased his vote total from 309 (57%) to 358 (66%), and increase of +49

Bert Blyleven increased his vote total from 260 (48%) to 336 (62%), an increase of +76

Lee Smith increased his vote total from 217 (40%) to 235 (43%), an increase of +18

Jack Morris increased his vote total from 202 (37%) to 233 (43%), an increase of +31

As the change in votes notes, Goose and Bert Blyleven received the biggest jumps in support from last year. Coupled with a weak first time list of nominees (only Tim Raines survived the 5% cut) and the Cal Ripken/Tony Gwynn monster from 2007, it should not be surprising to find new support for some long-time nominees. There are some interesting voting patterns over the past 3 years regarding these nominees- between 2006 and 2007, only Goose and Rice increased their vote totals. Goose went from 336 in 2006 to 388 in 2007, and Rice went from 337 in 2006 to 346 in 2007. So, the addition of Ripken and Gwynn obviously played a role in the voters' minds. Which on the one hand is understandable, but on the other, is not. In a year with weak candidates (2006 only Bruce Sutter was inducted-questionably- and 2008 only has Tim Raines as a viable candidate), the voters appear inclined to vote for those they may not ordinarily vote for, and become more stingy with their votes when big names are on the ballot. Why? I have no idea, other than when compared to big names (like Ripken and Gwynn), those players don't "feel" or "look" like hall of famers, I suppose.

Let's look at Bert Blyleven: 2006 vote he got 277 (53.3%), 2007 vote he got 260 (48%), and 2008 he got 336 (62%). While his career numbers have obviously not changed, his vote totals have slowly been rising since his first year of eligibility in 1998, which is when his career numbers probably looked the best (for example, when he retired, he was 3rd in career strikeouts, now he is 5th). In essence, he is a poor man's Don Sutton (and it took Sutton 5 times to make it). Sutton finished with 324 wins over 23 seasons (774 games, 756 games started, 178 complete games and 58 shutouts), Blyleven finished with 287 wins over 22 seasons (692 games, 685 games started, 242 complete games and 60 shutouts). Basically, Sutton started 71 extra games and won 37 more games, but Blyleven had 65 more complete games, 2 more shutouts and 127 more strikeouts in fewer starts.

If we look ahead to 2009, only two names appear to be able to surpass 5%: Rickey Henderson and Mark Grace. Rickey should be first ballot, but is he a big enough name to suppress Rice, Dawson and Blyleven's vote totals? It would certainly appear that Rice, Dawson and Blyleven are on their way to future induction, however, Rice only has one year left of eligibility, Blyleven has four and Dawson has 8 years left. I also expect Tim Raines' vote totals to increase over the next few years.

As for Mark Grace, I simply throw out this fun stat- Mark Grace had the most hits of any player in the 1990s, and every other decade's hits leader is in the Hall.

Along with Rice, Tommy John is also in his final year of eligibility before the baseball writers; if they do not reach 75% in next year's election, their fate moves on the Veteran's Committee, which is a whole other ballgame. I suspect the same fate awaits Lee Smith and Jack Morris, along with Dale Murphy, Dave Parker, Alan Trammell and Don Mattingly.

At some point I suppose I should put up my obligatory list of Hall of Famers that should not be in the Hall of Fame, and my list of players that should be in the Hall of Fame. But I'll save that for another day.